PV Industry Price Trend: Module Quotations Continue to Decline amidst Unrecovered Demand in Short Term
|published: 2021-11-18 15:43 | editor: et_editor | category: Price Trend|
The polysilicon market had slightly fluctuated this week, with a shrinkage in the quotation interval at the same time. With the power restrictions now phasing out, the upstream supply of polysilicon powder is now replenished, followed by a downward adjustment in quotations, and businesses are slightly mitigated in production pressure amidst a gradually alleviating provision status in polysilicon. A small segment of polysilicon orders have loosened in quotation alongside the oscillation of downstream product quotes, with no concluded transactions as of now, and the overall average concluded price remains leveled to that of last week, though high level quotations are gradually diminishing. The overall average price of mono polysilicon currently sits at RMB 271/KG, with market quotations lingering between RMB 265-275/KG.
An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the domestic polysilicon sector indicates that one out of twelve operating businesses has yet to resume production. Jiangsu and Sichuan are carrying on with their respective production from new capacity, though they are contributing to a restricted degree of actual production of polysilicon at year end, where certain regions are still sustaining the risk of production depletion from power restrictions. In terms of orders, downstream vertically integrated businesses have amplified their intensity of module shipment, and are exhibiting a thriving extent of demand for polysilicon. Polysilicon businesses have signed all orders for the month, where few businesses are also successively signing for December orders, which helps to maintain a balance in the supply of polysilicon, as well as stability among market prices amidst bargaining.
Wafer quotations continued to fluctuate this week, where M6 mono-Si wafer had slightly fallen back in prices. Wafer businesses have been improving in operation after the relieve of power restrictions, where vertically integrated wafer businesses have recovered in utilization rate thanks to downstream module shipment, and partial downstream businesses have started to sign for long-term orders of 2022 in order to guarantee provision.
There has been a stronger sentiment in the market recently regarding depletion in mid and upstream quotations from the industry chain, and several businesses are decelerating on the pace of procurement, which resulted in an incessant subsidence in wafer demand. A number of mono-Si wafer businesses have marginally compromised their quotations due to inventory pressure, especially with mono-Si M6 products, where the mainstream price has returned to RMB 5.71/pc from the continuously dropping concluded base price. Large-sized wafers are stabilized in prices, where M10 and G12 are respectively quoted at RMB 6.87/pc and RMB 9.1/pc. Multi-Si wafers are comparatively sturdy in overall quotations, and are decided in accordance with the degree of acceptance from the downstream sector. Current domestic and overseas quotations are at RMB 2.4/pc and US$0.329/pc.
Cell quotations remained sturdy on the weaker end this week, and the market is paying close attention to the upstream price trend. The market is recently filled with static surrounding an imminent price reduction from the upstream sector. Cell quotations are temporarily stabilized on the whole primarily due to the previous increase in prices from upstream products, as well as the abated velocity of procurement from the downstream sector. Cells are now exceedingly confined in profitability, and the corresponding quotations will be stabilized without any apparent declining tendency from wafer quotations. Aside from partial mono-Si M6 cells that have endured the impact from demand, high level quotations have also marginally declined, where the mainstream price is now RMB 1.08-1.12/W. As for large-sized cells, M10 and G12 mono-Si cells are sitting at RMB 1.15/W and RMB 1.12/W in mainstream prices.
Multi-Si cells have arrived at RMB 0.9/W and US$0.126 in mainstream domestic and overseas prices due to the gradually diminishing downstream trading days from a weakening level of product competitiveness under obstinately high upstream cost.
Module quotations had carried on with the status of last week, where partial module quotations had somewhat fallen back. Second and third-tier module makers are spontaneously lowering quotations, with transactions concluded, in order to reduce their inventory amidst unrecovered end demand. The overall quotations of the module market are moderately chaotic right now, where several businesses are offering quotations that are much lower than the market price so as to dump their inventory, which has affected the market by a certain extent. 182mm and 210mm modules, after loosening in 166 mono-Si modules last week, have both loosened this week, and are not expected to remain sturdy in quotations despite fewer conclude orders this week. 182mm and 210mm mono-Si modules have slightly dropped to RMB 2.1/W in mainstream price. In addition, with a reduction in the transaction of G1 mono-Si modules, the US quotations for 325-335/395-405W mono-Si PERC modules will not be included starting from this week.
In terms of demand, projects adopted with 530W and above high-efficiency modules have been successively awarded in the recent domestic module tender market, with a price stabilized at RMB 2-2.1/W, which denotes the robust demand has increased tolerance on module prices. Good news have been frequently heard from the US recently. The first is the cancellation on the anti-circumvention investigation for Southeast Asian production areas, and the second is the reduction of the 201 duty to 15%, as well as an exemption of import tax for bifacial modules, which are going to support the continuous growth of module demand.
Glass quotations continued to loosen this week, with a simultaneous decrement in single-sided and bifacial PV glasses. 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses are sitting at RMB 26-28/㎡ and roughly RMB 19-23/㎡. Due to loosened module quotations, module makers have been evident in squeezing the prices of glasses during purchases, and exhibiting a reduced degree of purchase willingness.
（Image：Activ Solar via Flickr CC BY-SA 2.0）